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August 19, 2005
Conspiracy Theories
I am deeply suspicious of conspiracy theories. I've heard otherwise rational people calmly state their belief in whoppers that are just beyond belief--you'd think that if these folks would extend their thinking just a little bit, they'd realize their pet theory would have to overcome astronomical odds for the outcome to align with their expectations. For example, I've never heard how Bush, Cheney, Rove and Rumsfeld were actually profiting from all that Iraqi oil. What's the mechanism? Swiss bank accounts? Secret wire transfers? Carrier pigeon?
But Streiff at Redstate.org makes the most succinct summary of why conspiracy theories are invariably bullshit. This sums up my feelings perfectly (emphasis mine):
I have been in fairly responsible positions in the Army and the federal government in my career thus far and this experience has made me a complete skeptic on the subject of conspiracies. The military and the government are just too big to organize anything more complicated than a two-car funeral and they just never paid us enough money to keep our mouths shut. These two immutable facts conclusively explain why the government neither found alien bodies in Roswell nor did it kill JFK.
The two key points are 1) most conspiracy theories require large numbers of people to keep absolutely silent about a Very Big Secret. It's just unreasonable to expect a group of more than a few people to keep quiet. 2) In this age of instant cable media celebrities, the larger the group of supposed conspirators, the greater the odds that someone will spill the beans to make a buck.
Another point: think Woodward and Bernstein. Those two guys were made for life after they broke the Watergate story, and there are countless bright, aggessive reporters who'd love to follow in their footsteps as gods of journalism.
But belief in conspiracy theories is emotion-driven, so I expect we'll never be rid of them.
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