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February 28, 2006
The Iranian Influence In Iraq
There is a sobering article by Michael Rubin in yesterday's Wall Street Journal, in which he traces the way the Iranians are duplicating in Iraq their successful establishment of their proxy Hezbollah as the de facto government in southern Lebanon (hat tip to Rich Lowry at The Corner). While the US obsesses about withdrawal strategies, IEDs and casualties, Rubin asserts that Iran is putting into place a plan that could render our sacrifices moot. All emphases are mine:
Here, though, the White House has lost focus. While journalists concentrate on the daily blood, Iraqis describe a larger pattern which U.S. officials have failed to acknowledge let alone address: Step-by-step, Iranian authorities are replicating in Iraq the strategy which allowed Hezbollah to take over southern Lebanon in the 1980s. The playbook--military, economic and information operation--is almost identical.
Rubin traces the long influence of Iran's Revolutionary Guards in training first Hezbollah and now the Badr Corps in Iraq--and the Guards were had infiltrated Iraq even before the coalition invasion. Rubin warns of allowing these militias to persist:
While Washington wrings its hands over the Samarra bombing, it should not play into Iranian hands and repeat the mistake of Najaf: Following the Aug. 29, 2003 bombing at the shrine of Imam Ali, coalition authorities acquiesced to demands to empower militias for security. Once implanted, militias take root. Iran is patient. While Washington rejoices in short-term calm, Tehran looks to long-term influence.
Rubin notes that intimidation through force of arms is by no means the only tool that Iran will employ: Hezbollah's effective use of social services points up the typical US bureaucratic logjam when it comes to aid money:
[...] In Lebanon, Hezbollah used Iranian money to create an extensive social service network. It funded schools, food banks and job centers. It's a tried and true strategy. When I lived in Dushanbe toward the end of Tajikistan's civil war, babushkas lined up under Khomeini's portrait to pick up food from the Imam Khomeini Relief Committee. Driving through Shiite neighborhoods of Baghdad, similar scenes unfold. While the U.S. Embassy boasts billions of dollars spent, it has little to show ordinary Iraqis for its efforts. Not so the Shiite militias. [...The] Shahid al-Mihrab Establishment for Promoting Islam throughout southern Iraq [...] distribute[s] food and gifts of money, so long as patrons pledge their allegiance. For impoverished Iraqis lacking electricity and livelihood, it's an easy decision.
U.S. officials have no strategy to counter this. At a recent American Enterprise Institute panel, James Jeffrey, the State Department's Iraq coordinator, said, "We don't believe in bags of money in the middle of the night like [the Iranians] do." In principle this is fine; in reality it is a recipe for defeat: While Tehran understands the importance of patronage networks, Washington does not. While U.S. funds go to Bechtel and Halliburton, Iran-backed groups address Iraqis' immediate needs. And not only is U.S. policy ineffective, but Foggy Bottom ineptitude has bolstered Tehran. Take Bayan Jabr, a Sciri functionary who, with U.S. acquiescence, became Iraq's Interior Minister: He has transformed the Iraqi police into a Badr Corps jobs program. According to one Iraqi minister, he has employed 1% of the Najaf workforce. These recruits do little, they receive a salary courtesy of the U.S. Congress, and the Badr Corps reaps the gratitude.
Rubin concludes with the observation that the US is losing the information war as well. He sharply questions the decision by our Colin Powell-led State Department to vote in favor of a UN Security Council resolution that formalized the US and Great Britain as "occupying powers".
What U.S. diplomats meant as an olive branch to pro-U.N. European allies was, in reality, hemlock. With the stroke of a pen, liberation became occupation: Al-Manar and Al-Alam barraged ordinary Iraqis with montages glorifying "resistance." They then highlighted U.S. fallibility with images of withdrawal from Vietnam, Lebanon and Somalia.
Tehran has a formula for success in Iraq; Washington does not.
It's pretty damned depressing to imagine that the tragic sacrifices and brilliant work done by our military might be undone by a lack of sophisticated long-term vision our strategic leadership.
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