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April 02, 2006
Would Pro-US Sentiment In Iran Survive An Attack?
Strategy Page has thoughts on how a bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities might affect the domestic political scene there (hat tip: AllahPundit guesting at Michelle Malkin):
Such an attack would entrench the religious dictatorship that is currently running Iran. Iranian nationalism being what it is, a bombing campaign would destroy much of the pro-American feelings that exist in Iran. The Islamic conservatives know that such an attack would slow nuclear weapons research, but not halt it.
I'm not sure if an attack would "destroy much of the pro-American feelings". Balanced against the grief and anger generated by any collateral casualties would be the facts that 1) casualties would still be a tiny proportion of the population who want the mullahs gone; and 2) there are I'm sure lots of Iranians who don't want a nuclear weapon in the hands of their leaders. I think it's entirely possible there would be some tangible relief among the Iranian people if their own nuclear program was demolished.
But even if I'm correct and at least some pro-US sentiment would survive, any democratic forces for change would still face an uphill battle. Strategy Page notes further:
The several million armed members of the Islamic conservative militia, the Basij, are being given police powers. This militia, about 1.2 million are organized and ready for active duty at any time, are willing to kill for the cause. Some 400,000 of the Basij can be mobilized and deployed within days. [...] Any grassroots rebellion against the Islamic conservative government, would have to get past the Basij first.
The problems in Iran dwarf those we encountered in Iraq.
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